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Aug 2014
Cost effective

Ferrexpo’s interim report for FY2014 confirmed that the company has managed to maintain its robust operational performance despite the ongoing issues in Ukraine. In addition the company’s financial position remains solid, which should enable the company to withstand the current period of unrest. On the back of both these results and a revision to our iron ore price forecasts, we have reduced our target price from 220p to 180p. We maintain our Buy recommendation on valuation grounds, but note the increased risks.

Aug 2014
Strong momentum

Yesterday’s IMS revealed a continuation of strong underlying trading momentum, a welcomed rationalisation of Asian and European operations and a reiteration of expectations for the 12 months to end July 2014 despite currency headwinds. We have upgraded our adjusted PBT forecast for FY2014 by c.4%, have nudged up our target price from 127p to 132p and believe NFC is well placed to capture strengthening digital media spend. We see good scope for further share price outperformance and reiterate our Add recommendation.

Aug 2014
Too much drag

Rolls-Royce's (RR’s) results on 31 July showed margin strength at Civil Aero (and temporarily at Defence Aero) but were insufficient to offset more FX translation pressure and aftermarket weakness at Marine. The Civil Aero aftermarket rebound still remains elusive (with the RB211 dragging in H1) versus peers. Given this, we trim our EPS estimates (by -2% for 2014E and -3% for 2015E) and our PT (by -1%) from 1,050p to 1,040p. The results were a reminder that RR’s growth outlook currently appears a little too slow, and we retain our Neutral rating.

Aug 2014
Puts, takes and FX

BAE’s results on 31 July were a reminder of how profitable its core P&S (UK) business can be and how well commercial cyber-security is growing (albeit still very small in a group context), though with FX drags and a perhaps under-highlighted tax rate improvement. The book-to-bill was soft and remains, as for other defence stocks, a watch issue, despite the longer-term nature of non-US contracting. We trim our 2014 EPS by 1% and our price target is unchanged. Given our cautious view on the US Defense Budget, we retain our Sell rating.

Aug 2014
Interim results

We were pleased by the progress detailed in UBM’s interims and our first impressions of its new CEO are favourable. We have reduced our forecasts to reflect currency and a more conservative view on corporate and interest costs, and lowered our target price from 755p to 695p to reflect these changes and the prospect of a period of limbo until detailed strategy plans emerge. That said, we regard the group’s focus on events and emerging markets as a key attraction and note that our

Aug 2014
Quarterly report

Black Mountain Resources published its quarterly report for the period ending 30 June 2014 last week, which primarily focused on the ongoing development of operations at its New Departure mine in Montana. Encouraging samples were recovered during the quarter, with further sampling scheduled to expand the known high-grade zones. We have adjusted our silver forecast on the back of its ongoing price weakness, which has resulted in our TP reducing from 17p to 10p. We maintain our Buy recom

Jul 2014
On track for FY guidance

Antofagasta’s Q2 2014 production report confirmed it was on track to achieve guidance of 700,000t of copper for FY2014, after production increased 5.5% from Q1 to reach 348,200t for H1. Net cash costs also remain in-line at US$1.45/lb following improved by-product credits. Despite being in-line, we expect some downgrades as the consensus was for Antofagasta to beat its guidance for FY2014. With numbers in line, we retain our 885p TP, but downgrade to Neutral (from

Jul 2014
Strong interims

We are encouraged by the strong performance/positive trading comments in today’s interims and view Rightmove (RMV) as a well-managed, highly cash-generative business with a clear strategy, strong competitive position and attractive growth prospects. We have trimmed our target price to 2,585p (2,700p) to factor in a more cautious view on medium-term competition and housing market volatility, but have upgraded from Neutral to Add as this benchmark suggest c.14% upside potential followi

Jul 2014
H1 2014 results - grinding upwards

GKN’s H1 results on 29 July demonstrated that the company can grind its way over FX and tax rate bumps via superior organic growth and margin expansion, particularly at Driveline. There was no news on any potential acquisition of facilities from Spirit, and the sole negative was that the pension deficit has widened again. We leave our EPS and PT (implying a 25% TSR) unchanged. The results underscore our view that GKN is th

Jul 2014
New horizons

We were pleased with BSY’s prelims, remain positive on its UK growth prospects and, despite a degree of caution on execution, are supportive of the growth opportunity/strategic value created by the acquisition of Sky Deutschland and Sky Italia. We expect this deal to reduce our FY2015E EPS estimate by c.3%, but believe its valuation looks undemanding relative to the opportunities and risks entailed. We maintain our 985p

Jul 2014
Much better second half in prospect

We are encouraged that Synectics expects a strong performance going forward despite the difficult trading conditions in the six months to end May 2014. We make no changes to any of our adj. PBT forecasts implying £5m of adj. PBT in H2 2014 and making the uplift to £9.0m for FY2015 achievable, in our view. With a strong order book and sales pipeline, we believe that the share price will improve as confidence that Synecti

Jul 2014
Trimming the sails of growth

Following the H1 results/analyst meeting, we review our 2014E PTP to reflect headwinds from FX and profit margin pressure, especially in Reinsurance and Speciality. Our initial expectation is that 2014E PTP (Norm) will be £189.5m vs. our previous estimate of £201.2m, (-5.8%). We expect to trim 2015E by some 3.9% to £218.7m. This is due to near-term external pressures that in our view are just delaying profit recognition into 2015 and beyond, supported by the 6% organic growth seen in H1. O

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